Calgary Housing market expected to be stable in 2015

Housing market expected to be stable in 2015
While the recent drop in oil prices has caused speculation about implications for the housing sector, stable conditions are expected given current forecasts for employment and migration.

“While employment and migration are expected to support housing demand, estimates could change depending on the extent and duration of oil price declines,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®’s chief economist. “However, concerns over the potential impact will influence consumer confidence. This is expected to cause supply and demand to ease in 2015, maintaining resale market balance and keeping prices relatively stable.”

According to Lurie, the risk lies with the potential severity and duration of the pullback in the energy industry, which would have a lagging effect on the housing sector. While the current situation has some comparing today’s market to 2009, there are some differences.

“Following the financial crisis, many countries including the United States were struggling. In Calgary, new home starts outpaced household formations, contributing to an oversupplied market,” said Lurie.

While CREB® has not yet completed its forecast for 2015, based on the current range of economic expectations, Calgary’s housing market is not expected to see the same level of pullback recorded from 2008 to 2010.

It is important to note there can be significant differences between segments of the Calgary market. Bill Kirk, president of CREB®, clarifies that there are many factors to consider when buying or selling a home, outside of market conditions.

“Market influencers are wide-ranging and may include anything from price range to the type of home and availability in a particular market segment,” said Kirk. “A REALTOR® can help determine how these factors will impact a given property in a given area, allowing consumers to make an informed decision.”

CREB®’s 2015 forecast report will be available January 14, 2015.

CREB® November 2014 Statistics

Price growth slows in Calgary
Improving inventories help ease price growth pressure

Calgary’s residential resale housing market posted relatively strong November activity reaching 1,782 units, a three per cent increase over the previous year, and nearly 13 per cent above long term averages.

“Relative to other major centres, economic growth in Calgary remains one of the strongest in the country,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “Employment opportunities and relatively higher wages have encouraged people to move here, supporting the demand growth in our housing sector.”

Meanwhile, new listings growth continues to outpace the gains in sales, supporting a 22 per cent year-over-year rise in November inventories to 3,849 units. While inventories have recorded significant gains, they remain below long-term averages for the month.

“Over the past year, inventories have been low in the city, limiting some of the choice for consumers,” said CREB® president Bill Kirk. “While availability in specific segments and price ranges vary, on the whole, the recent rise in inventories will be welcome news for many buyers.”

As in previous months, November saw double-digit growth in year-to-date sales for all property types. However, the strongest gains were in the condominium apartment and townhouse sectors with a combined growth of over 19 per cent. When comparing year-to-date sales figures, both condominium sectors are currently at record levels.

“Overall, buyers looking for product under $400,000 will find more options in the condominium sector because supply levels have improved,” said Kirk. “In the single-family sector, however, declining supply in that same price range has created much tighter market conditions in that segment.”

Single-family sales totaled 1,181 units in November, a one per cent year-over-year decline. Meanwhile, year-to-date activity totaled 16,481 units, a 6.2 per cent increase over the previous year. New listings, in comparison, increased 5.9 per cent to 23,207 units over the same time frame.

November also showed easing growth in single-family unadjusted benchmark prices, totaling $511,300 in November—an 8.7 per cent increase over the previous year. While year-over-year price gains remain strong, price growth has slowed from the double-digit rates posted earlier in the year.

Meanwhile, unadjusted benchmark prices for condominium apartments and townhouses totaled a respective $300,700 and $338,600. Like the single-family sector, both condominium sectors have seen price growth ease from double-digit levels. However, it was only this past June and September that saw condominium apartment and townhouse prices recover from previous highs.

“Tight market conditions earlier in the year caused significant aggregate price gains,” said Lurie. “It also resulted in a rise in new listings, supporting gains in inventory levels, and a push towards more balanced levels. This has helped ease the upward growth pressure on prices.

“While Calgary’s price gains have garnered a significant amount of national attention, several indicators are pointing toward more stable conditions, easing risk associated with an overheating market.”

Click here to access the full monthly statistics package.

Central Alberta Real Estate October 2014 Statistics

Red Deer, November 19, 2014 -Residential sales reported through the MLS® System of the Central Alberta REALTORS® Association remained at record levels in October 2014.

Home sales numbered 454 units in October, an increase of 7.8 per cent from the same month last year. This was the best October sales figure on record and the first time that sales in the month have ever topped the 450 mark.

Sales activity in all of Alberta rose 8.9 per cent from a year earlier in October 2014.

On a year-to-date basis, Central Alberta home sales were running 11.7 per cent ahead of the first 10 months of 2013. With only two months left to go 2014 looks set to post a new annual record.

New residential listings on the Association’s MLS® System numbered 636 units in October, up 5.6 per cent from year-ago levels.

There were 2,380 active residential listings on the Association’s MLS® System at the end of October, down 5.5 per cent from levels at the end of October 2013.

There were 5.2 months of inventory at the end of October 2014, down from 6.0 months reported at the end of October 2013 and below the long-run average for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The dollar value of all home sales in October 2014 was $146.6 million, rising 20.0 per cent from a year earlier and a record for the month. The dollar value of home sales in all of Alberta was up 15.6 per cent from October 2013.

Sales of all types of properties totalled 476 units in October. This was up 7.0 per cent compared to October 2013. The total value of all property sales amounted to $157.8 million in October, up 16.6 per cent from a year earlier.

The Central Alberta REALTORS® Association is an MLS® listing co-operative, representing more than 560 REALTORS® located in Red Deer and throughout Central Alberta. Details and photos of all Central Alberta REALTORS® Association listings can be found on the national public web sites www.carassociation.ca, www.REALTOR.ca (residential properties) and ICX.CA (commercial and investment properties).

CREB® October 2014 Statistics

Calgary, Nov. 3, 2014 – Continued double-digit gains in the condominium apartment sector helped to fuel a 10 per cent increase in Calgary’s residential resale housing market in October. Overall sales for the month totaled 2,147 units, compared with 1,948 during the same period last year.

“Two consecutive years of relatively strong employment and population growth, combined with rising wages and low lending rates, have supported demand growth in our housing sector,” said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

With a 14 per cent gain, the city’s condominium apartment sector recorded the largest year-over-year growth. It represents the sixth consecutive month that sales in this category have increased by double digits – due, in large part, to better selection of relatively affordable product. More than half of this year’s new listings have been priced below $300,000.

“Tight rental market conditions combined with low mortgage rates have supported demand growth for condominium product in Calgary,” said CREB® president Bill Kirk, noting apartment sales have also set a year-to-date record, totaling 4,202 units. “Much of this demand is coming from both first-time homebuyers and investors.”

While sales improved, year-to-date condominium apartment listings also increased by nearly 30 per cent to 6,528 units. The pace of growth has exceeded sales growth causing a rise in inventory levels.

“Rising listings relative to sales activity has caused apartment inventories to improve,” said Kirk. “This has pushed this sector into more balanced territory, reducing some upward pricing pressures and giving buyers more options.”

Meanwhile, year-over-year condominium townhouse sales growth eased to eight per cent in October compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date sales, however, are still up 19 per cent to 3,303 units. New listings have similarly kept pace, creating access to more inventory for buyers.

Much like the condominium sectors, October sales in the singlefamily market experienced healthy gains, growing by 9.7 per cent to 1,462 units compared to same period last year. Meanwhile, new listings totaled 1,871 units. Year-to-date single-family sales and new listings have totaled 15,301 and 21,890 units respectively.

As of October, only 18 per cent of new single-family listings were priced below $400,000 and only 387 remained in inventory by the end of the month.

“While buyers can still find single-family product priced under this threshold in Calgary, the selection has consistently declined over the past four years,” said Kirk. “As our market moves into more balanced conditions, there has been a notable shift in the composition of the market. Not only do condominiums represent a larger share of total activity, but product availability by price range and property type has shifted.”

Single-family, apartment and townhouse benchmark prices totaled a respective $513,500, $299,800, and $337,800 in October. While all sectors saw unadjusted monthly prices level off and growth ease, year-over-year increases remained above nine per cent across all categories due to gains achieved this past spring.

“All citywide resale segments have recorded a moderate easing of supply constraints, which should help stabilize prices as we approach the end of the calendar year,” said Lurie. “Nonetheless, consumers should be aware that market conditions can vary significantly depending on the location and property type.”

Central Alberta Real Estate September 2014 Statistics

Best September on record for Central Alberta home sales 

Red Deer, October 20, 2014 - Residential sales reported through the MLS® System of the Central Alberta REALTORS® Association remained at very strong levels in September 2014.

Home sales numbered 503 units in September, an increase of 12.3 per cent from the same month last year. This was the best September sales figure on record and the first time that sales in the month have ever topped the 500 mark.

Sales activity in all of Alberta rose 10.3 per cent from a year earlier in September 2014.

On a year-to-date basis, Central Alberta home sales were running 12.1 per cent ahead of the first nine months of 2013 and also stood at a record for the period.

New residential listings on the Association’s MLS® System numbered 709 units in September, up 4.7 per cent from year-ago levels.

There were 2,742 active residential listings on the Association’s MLS® System at the end of September, down 6.5 per cent from levels at the end of September 2013.

There were 5.5 months of inventory at the end of September 2014, down from 6.5 months reported at the end of September 2013 and below the long-run average for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

The dollar value of all home sales in September 2014 was $157.8 million, rising 22.2 per cent from a year earlier and a record for the month. The dollar value of home sales in all of Alberta was up 15.6 per cent from September 2013.

Sales of all types of properties totalled 524 units in September. This was up 11.5 per cent compared to September 2013. The total value of all property sales amounted to $166.1 million in September, up 19.2 per cent from a year earlier.

The Central Alberta REALTORS® Association is an MLS® listing co-operative, representing more than 560 REALTORS® located in Red Deer and throughout Central Alberta. Details and photos of all Central Alberta REALTORS® Association listings can be found on the national public web sites www.carassociation.ca, www.REALTOR.ca (residential properties) and ICX.CA (commercial and investment properties).